AS 768 · SEA → LAS

departs 8:23 PM PT · arrives 10:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 768 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?