AS 82 · ADQ → ANC

departs 3:00 PM AKT · arrives 4:14 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ADQ

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ANC usually runs smoothly

↓ 3pm departures from ADQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

ADQ (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ANC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 82 · ADQ → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?