AS 878 · HNL → LAX

departs 11:04 AM HT · arrives 7:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 878 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?