Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 89 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 89 · ANC → ADQ

departs 2:03 PM AKT · arrives 3:06 PM AKT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at ADQ more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ADQ?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at ADQ that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into ADQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ADQ (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 89 · ANC → ADQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADQ?