Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 923 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 923 · OAK → OGG

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:17 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 5% of the time recently

↓ 7am departures from OAK are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 923 · OAK → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?