Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 478 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

B6 478 · JAX → JFK

departs 11:28 AM ET · arrives 1:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.45 in

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 478 · JAX → JFK

Odds over time