Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1236
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 1236 · MKE → ATL
departs 6:50 AM CT · arrives 9:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.