Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2431 · DTW → DEN
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 5:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.