Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
DL 2438 · ATL → SRQ
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.27 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.