Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
DL 2486 · ATL → ORD
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.