Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2609 · DTW → EWR
departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.