Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2865 · ATL → GRR
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.80 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.