Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2870 · SEA → SFO
departs 7:20 AM PT · arrives 9:38 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.