Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 743 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

DL 743 · ATL → SMF

departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.09 in

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 743 · ATL → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?