DL 929 · ATL → PHX

took off 9:32 PM ET · expected to land 9:54 PM MT (scheduled 8:44 PM ET → 9:40 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling520 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

PHX (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 929 · ATL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?