Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1441 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

F9 1441 · ATL → ORD

departs 6:35 AM ET · arrives 7:53 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ATL are usually not late

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.67 in

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1441 · ATL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?