Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1518 · RDU → PHL
departs 8:24 AM ET · arrives 9:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PHL that day
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from RDU are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.