Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1571
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1571 · PHX → SAN
departs 2:16 PM MT · arrives 3:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.