Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1808
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
F9 1808 · MCO → PHL
departs 8:16 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.