F9 1896 · LAS → PHX

departs 9:48 PM PT · arrives 11:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1896 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?