F9 2146 · LAS → ORD

departs 12:02 AM PT · arrives 5:49 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2146 · LAS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?