F9 2177 · RDU → FLL

departs 10:38 AM ET · arrives 12:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ 8am departures from RDU are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.41 in

FLL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2177 · RDU → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?