F9 2282 · ATL → EWR

departs 8:12 AM ET · arrives 10:27 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.12 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2282 · ATL → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?