F9 2711 · DEN → SAN

departs 10:27 PM MT · arrives 12:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2711 · DEN → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?