Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2801 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

F9 2801 · DTW → LAS

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 9:57 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2801 · DTW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?