Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 2868 · MCO → SJU
departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM AT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Thu 10/8 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.