Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 3135 · ORD → IAH
departs 5:46 PM CT · arrives 9:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.