Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
F9 3221 · RSW → CVG
departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.