F9 3494 · LAS → IAD

departs 10:43 PM PT · arrives 6:14 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3494 · LAS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?