F9 3837 · LAS → OAK

departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 6:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3837 · LAS → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?