Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4000
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 4000 · SFO → DFW
departs 12:29 AM PT · arrives 6:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.