F9 4064 · ORD → BWI

departs 6:21 AM CT · arrives 9:30 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4064 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?