Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
F9 4092 · TPA → BWI
departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 10:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.