F9 4156 · SFO → LAS

departs 9:00 PM PT · arrives 10:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4156 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?