Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4157 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

F9 4157 · LAS → SFO

departs 3:26 PM PT · arrives 4:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4157 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time