Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
F9 4170 · MCO → PHL
departs 10:16 PM ET · arrives 12:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±2 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.