F9 4204 · SEA → LAS

departs 9:52 PM PT · arrives 12:30 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4204 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?