F9 4561 · MSY → DEN

departs 10:44 AM CT · arrives 12:44 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.03 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4561 · MSY → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?