Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
F9 4989 · DEN → SAN
departs 10:29 PM MT · arrives 11:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Sundays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.