Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
G4 1009 · ELM → PIE
departs 8:41 PM ET · arrives 11:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PIE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIE?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PIE at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIE
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at ELM that day
Weather at each end
ELM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
PIE (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.