G4 1404 · TYS → PHX

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:08 AM MT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at TYS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from TYS are usually not late

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.20 in

PHX (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1404 · TYS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?