Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
G4 1473 · EWR → VPS
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 12:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±8 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at VPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to VPS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.3 in of rain forecast at VPS that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
VPS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.