Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
G4 1847 · IAD → PGD
departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
IAD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
PGD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.