G4 1863 · AVL → EYW

took off 11:08 AM ET · expected to land 12:57 PM ET (scheduled 11:11 AM ET → 1:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EYW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at AVL that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW

↓ AVL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

EYW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1863 · AVL → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?