G4 1864 · AVL → PIE

departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at PIE more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIE?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PIE at that hour are often late

↓ AVL usually runs smoothly

↓ AVL is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.10 in

PIE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1864 · AVL → PIE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIE?