G4 1968 · BNA → MDT

departs 6:31 AM CT · arrives 9:24 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDT?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at MDT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MDT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

MDT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 1968 · BNA → MDT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDT?