G4 2020 · SFB → TRI

departs 3:33 PM ET · arrives 5:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at TRI more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TRI?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TRI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.30 in

TRI (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2020 · SFB → TRI

Odds over time

How late will it get to TRI?