G4 2052 · TRI → SFB

departs 6:03 PM ET · arrives 7:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 6pm departures from TRI are usually not late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TRI (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2052 · TRI → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?