Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
G4 2262 · AZA → FSD
departs 4:07 PM MT · arrives 8:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave AZA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from AZA are often late
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
Weather at each end
AZA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.