G4 241 · PIE → AVL

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:17 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at AVL that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from PIE are usually not late

Weather at each end

PIE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

AVL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 241 · PIE → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?